Biscuits & SEC Week 5 game-by-game previews 2024
Alabama-Georgia headlines the start of SEC play with a jam packed Week 5 schedule.
By: Bossman, Hammer, Waco Kid
Week 4 mostly went as planned, but a few teams like Mizzou and LSU had to scratch and claw to ensure victory. Auburn seems to be spiraling after losing to Arkansas at home in one of the sloppiest games you’ll ever see. We’ve got some fun ones here in Week 5, headlined by #4 Alabama hosting #2 Georgia at night in Bryant-Denny Stadium. You can bet that Tuscaloosa will be rocking and Rounders and Innisfree will be filled to the gills.
Here’s how the B&S crew fared in Week 4:
Bossman and Hammer continue to rack up Ws in the straight-up column while Waco Kid needs to make up ground. With SEC play beginning in full swing this week, the margin for error becomes much tighter. This week will put the crew to the test.
Let’s hit the previews.
Bossman: Quite the intriguing matchup here. Kentucky is an enigma through four weeks, but they’re not a very good enigma. Ole Miss is also an enigma, but they’re (probably) a really good enigma. You could argue that Wake Forest was the first real test for the Rebels this season, but I don’t believe that. This is the first serious defense that the Rebels have faced all season long. Because of that, I expect the high-flying Rebels offense to start a little slow as they adjust to the improved competition. At the end of the day, though, Ole Miss is just too talented and a much better team. While everyone talks about the Rebs offense, don’t forget about their defense – especially the run defense. The Ole Miss rush defense is the top-rated in the SEC, giving up just 34.5 yards per game. The Rebels are going to load the box and try to make Kentucky beat them through the air, which seems highly unlikely. The Wildcats have the weapons on the outside to do damage, but they can’t get them the ball enough to be effective, especially when we’re talking about keeping up with on Ole Miss offense that can strike at any time. Not to mention, Kentucky is not a good road team. In the last five seasons, Mark Stoops is 10-13 on the road. Make it 10-14. Rebels cover in front of a charged Vaught-Hemingway crowd.
#6 Ole Miss 38
Kentucky 17
Hammer: Kentucky was written off after their week two disaster against South Carolina. Then they turned around and came up just short against Georgia, losing 13-12. They cruised against Ohio last week as well, and are back in the spotlight with a big time game against Ole Miss where they are 17.5 underdogs. Give me Ole Miss. I’ve been riding with Ole Miss all year long, and they have been delivering. This will be the Rebels first “real” test, although I still have a ton of questions about Kentucky, especially on the road. I think the Wildcat’s defense will give Ole Miss more resistance than they have seen all year, but I don’t trust Kentucky’s offense to go on the road and score enough to keep this under the spread. Jaxson Dart has seen tough defenses for multiple years, and he will be at home. Plus, I think the Ole Miss defense will be ready for this one. They have been playing really well against cupcakes and I think they get after Vandagriff and company on Saturday.
#6 Ole Miss 35
Kentucky 16
Waco Kid: Ole Miss is all around a better team this year, through the air, on the ground, and defensively. They should outshine the Wildcats in every aspect of the game. I think Kentucky makes this a little more exciting than most would think, especially after their performance against Georgia. They obviously showed up on defense last week and proved they could hang with the best of them. But the Rebs’ offense is a little more potent and needs less attempts to score. Give me the University of Mississippi, but Kentucky to cover.
#6 Ole Miss 31
Kentucky 17
Bossman: Dude. I have no clue. Here’s an eye-popping stat: In the last 11 games between these two teams, the average margin of victory is nine points. If you take out the outlier 21-point victory for the Aggies in 2016, that number drops to a 7.9 average margin of victory. In that span? A&M is 10-1 against Arkansas. Can’t make it up. Somehow, this game is always down to the wire before the Aggies find a way to crush the hopes and dreams of the Razorback faithful. Can they do it again this week? We’ll see. The spread tells you all you need to know, this one feels like a total coin flip. Rumors are that Marcel Reed will get the nod at QB for the Aggies in place of the still-injured Conner Weigman. Arkansas is 3-1 but should be 4-0 if they hadn’t melted down against Oklahoma State. Even so, it hasn’t been a pretty 3-1 after struggling against UAB, blowing it against OSU, and limping to an ugly win over a bad Auburn team. I’m watching three things here: 1) The Aggies rushing attack vs. this stout Arkansas front, 2) who can win the explosive play battle, and 3) If A&M can keep contain on Taylen Green and slow down Ja’Quinden Jackson. Arkansas is averaging 17 explosive plays per game (defined as rushing plays 12+ yards and passing plays 16+ yards), while the Aggies are averaging just eight a game. How about that for the Bobby Petrino effect? And by the way – teams that have won the explosive play battle in the SEC so far in 2024? They’re 32-2. Give me the Hogs in a knuckle dragger.
Arkansas 24
#24 Texas A&M 23
Hammer: This game feels like a game of roulette every year, yet the Aggies have won 11 of the last 12 matchups. It feels like it’s always a close, back-and-forth game and somehow A&M finds a way to win, or Arkansas finds a way to lose. So what do we expect this year? It’s anyone’s guess. Texas A&M’s quarterback situation is still up in the air with Conner Weigman likely a game-time decision for the third consecutive week. Backup Marcel Reed has played admirably in the last two games but it seems like the A&M staff is still backing Weigman if he is healthy. The Aggies offense has been inconsistent yet again this year so expecting them to score a bunch of points against an admittedly average Arkansas defense seems unlikely. If any team can get to 30 here, they should win because A&M’s defense is pretty darn good. The Razorback offense has looked good in spurts this year, but Taylen Green played so bad a week ago against Auburn, he was bench for a series. To me, this game will be won by the Aggie defensive line. Arkansas has shown the ability to give away games this year and I think they might hand this one over the Aggies with some silly turnovers. Petrino’s offense will create some mismatches for A&M and should find yardage, but they are too turnover and penalty prone to trust right now. I like A&M to win a close one here.
#24 Texas A&M 27
Arkansas 21
Waco Kid: This matchup is always a wild one. I think you have more of a chance predicting a coin toss than you do in this game. Arkansas and A&M always play each other close, and even when the final score looks lopsided, it is usually just because one team scores near the end to add insult to injury. Both of these teams look like middle of the pack SEC teams but seeing as the Aggies have only fallen to Notre Dame this year and Arkansas has only lost to OSU, I think the better of the losses would go to the Ags. However the maroon and white did look pretty abysmal against a Bowling Green team that was probably scheduled as an easy W. Give me A&M by 10.
#24 Texas A&M 38
Arkansas 28
Bossman: The Jackson Arnold era in Norman already seems to be over and we haven’t even reached the midpoint of the season. Four-star freshman Michael Hawkins will take over starting duties against Auburn after coming on in relief of Arnold late in the first half against Tennessee. Better hope you’re right, Brent! But as bad as the QB situation seems at OU, it’s even worse at Auburn. Who the hell is gonna start this week for the Tigers? Beats me. Who should it be? Beats me. Between Payton Thorne and Hank Brown, they’ve thrown eight interceptions on the year. Their combined completion percentage is 60%, and it feels like 50% of that is to the other team. Anyway, both of these offenses are bad, yada yada. That just means we’re looking at a low-scoring game, which is why the over/under is at 45.5. I’ll take the under on that one, Bob. What about the defenses? Oklahoma is in the middle of the pack but if you watched the Tennessee game, you know they gave up some big plays but for the most part they held their own. Auburn on the other hand is 13th in the conference in total defense. I like Hawkins to provide enough of a spark for OU and this Sooners defense to put the clamps on Jarquez Hunter and whoever is trotted out under center for the Tigers. Sooners cover that measly spread.
#21 Oklahoma 23
Auburn 19
Hammer: This game should be ugly and smash mouth football. Neither team knows how to play offense. But unless Hugh Freeze has a QB he can pull out of his rear end for this game, I like Oklahoma. Auburn stinks on offense and there is no one to blame but Freeze. Perhaps this is the game when Hugh Freeze sneaks up and wins a game he shouldn't. He does that pretty much every year but I don’t think the Tiger’s offense is capable of moving the ball against Oklahoma. The Sooners defense is really, really good. They just played a very good game against Tennessee who is far, far better on offense than Auburn. This will be Oklahoma’s first road game in the SEC, and they are starting freshman Michael Hawkins which could be problematic. I just do not see Oklahoma’s defense allowing anything for Auburn in this game so I’ll go with the Sooners. Barring some Jordan-Hare voodoo or Hugh Freeze waking up from his slumber, I simply don’t see how Auburn can score enough to win.
#21 Oklahoma 20
Auburn 16
The Waco Kid: As poor of a quarterbacking performance as Auburn showed last week, Oklahoma’s was not great either. The main difference was OU was playing a top ranked Tennessee team, whereas Auburn was playing the Razorbacks. The Sooners typically are known for an explosive offense but we have said it multiple times, welcome to the SEC, where that Jr. High Big 12 BS no longer works and defensive backs can actually run with receivers. I am a little surprised at the spread given Auburn’s poor play, but Hugh is on the hot seat and even the Freeze may not be able to cool it down. Give me OU with the cover.
#21 Oklahoma 24
Auburn 17
Bossman: BALL TRAINNNN! Back in my fraternity (frat) days, that’s what we said in bid meetings when there was overwhelming consensus among my esteemed brethren that a kid wasn’t gonna get that coveted bid. Well, I can save you some reading, all the B&S brethren are gonna pick Texas by a mile. Mississippi State is getting their ass balled, 100%. Way too GDI for Arch Manning and the boys. I could analyze this one until I’m blue in the face cause I’m a sick puppy, but there’s not much to see here. Texas is going to absolutely stomp Mississippi State and their backup QB even if Dr. Pepper Deputy Sheriff Quinn Ewers can’t go. This is easily the best defense that the Bulldogs have faced this year, and they were only able to put up 17 points on Toledo. That 38.5 point spread is very high, but it’s because this State defense is softer than [insert softest thing ever]. I’ll take Texas to cover at home in their first SEC game.
#1 Texas 52
Mississippi State 13
Hammer: I’ll keep this short. Hide your kids and hide your wives for this game cause it’s going to be a bloodbath. Mississippi State is awful. This has to be the worst team Mississippi State has fielded in 15 years. They can’t do anything. Texas, meanwhile, is rolling. They have weapons all over the field on offense, and their defense looks good against horrendous offenses and thus, will look great again this week against a horrendous offense. Horns win big.
#1 Texas 56
Mississippi State 10
Waco Kid: This one shouldn’t be an issue for Texas. The ‘Horns have proven they can go forward with Manning or Ewers and still pull off the win. There is one thing that causes me hesitation…When Texas was overrated in the Big 12 and Kansas was at the bottom of the conference, they always found a way to choke and lose their easiest game of the year. Could this be the case in the SEC? I don’t believe so, but anything could happen. Mississippi State will cover but by the bare minimum, due to UT putting in subs in the 4th.
#1 Texas 48
Mississippi State 17
Bossman: These are the matchups we love in primetime. Early season bare knuckle brawls between two of the sports top teams. Nick Saban as 5-1 against his former assistant Kirby Smart, but he no longer roams the sidelines in Tuscaloosa. The Georgia offense has struggled so far this year and has yet to find their go-to game-breaker. Carson Beck and the Dawgs are 11th in the SEC in total offense as they’re sorely missing Brock Bowers. Trevor Etienne was banged up against Kentucky (shoulder), but if he can go, they’ll need him to break through this weak Bama rushing D. I haven’t seen the Dawgs fabled rush offense do that yet this season, though, and I don’t trust the weapons Georgia has on the outside to be able to outgun Alabama. I like the Tide here at home, particularly because I think Alabama has a dependable weapon in freshman phenom Ryan Williams (10 catches for 285 yards and a TD). He’ll be up against a stout Georgia secondary, but I expect Kalen DaBoer to scheme him open once or twice for a big play that tilts the game in favor of the crimson and white. Tide win at home, but it’s tight.
#4 Alabama 26
#2 Georgia 24
Hammer: “Woahhh nellie” as the late, great Keith Jackson would say. The only thing that could make this game bigger is if Keith was in the booth…or Saban on the sidelines. Otherwise, this is as big as it gets. Kalen DeBoer is going to be baptized in SEC football fire this Saturday night with Dixieland Delight playing in the background. Luckily for Deboer and the Tide, they had a bye week last week to focus on the Dawgs. Problem is, so did Kirby and Georgia. No excuses on either side. Except for the 2021 title game, Alabama has owned Kirby and Georgia, but like I said, Saban is gone now. DeBoer is a great coach, and this game is at home, but I have to think Kirby and his team will be ready. I’m going with all vibes for this pick because I think these teams are so close in terms of talent and the matchup. And the vibes tell me that Kirby and the Dawgs are due to beat Alabama and doing it in Tuscaloosa will just be that much sweeter. On the field, I am leaning Georgia because of their defense. Outside of Milroe’s legs, I’m not convinced the Tide will be able to move the ball consistently. Ryan Williams is a beast on the outside but I’ll trust Kirby, his defense, and the experience they have.
#2 Georgia 23
#4 Alabama 21
Waco Kid: Well this is a hard one after UGA almost fell to Kentucky two weekends ago, while the Tide has been rolling week after week. Georgia has been king of the SEC for the past couple of years with no sign of slowing down. Kirby Smart has the red and black playing as national contenders on a yearly basis while Alabama has struggled to maintain their dominant spot at the top of the conference. As an esteemed scholar of Greek Mythology, I know Athens was a place of gods. Fortunately for Kalen DeBoer and the boys, they will not travel to Athens for that perilous journey. They will host the football gods in their backyard, and we should see a battle the likes of which has not been seen since the gods took on the Titans. The x-factor in this one has to be Jalen Milroe for the Crimson and Carson Beck for the Dawgs. Whichever of these quarterbacks comes out guns blazing, will be able to propel their team to a close win. This one may be one of the biggest games of the season so strap in for some hard hitting football from two of the SEC’s finest. Who’s that coming down the track? It’s the mean machine in red and black. In the words of the great Pat McAfee “GIVE ME BAMA!!!”
#4 Alabama 35
#2 Georgia 31
Other games on the slate:
#14 LSU vs. South Alabama - 7:45 ET on SEC Network
BYES: Florida, Mizzou, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
