SEC Bowl Previews: Part II
We’re on the crescendo to the 2023 college football season. Buckle up for the New Year’s Six and the College Football Playoff.
By: Bossman Slim, Hammer
We’re in the thick of bowl season with the Grandaddy Of Them All on deck.
It’s the final countdown. The shriveled cherry on top of the ice cream. Why shriveled? Because opt-outs have dealt a significant blow to these pre-playoff bowls. But don’t get us wrong, we’re still going to watch all the games just like we always do, especially when you’ve got games like the Pop-Tart Bowl and Duke’s Mayo Bowl creating endless content. How could you not?
Let’s hit Part II of our previews.
Bossman Slim: Finally a game with both teams near full strength! I think the Drew Allar vs. Jaxson Dart matchup will be fun to watch. Allar has yet to live up to his 5-star hype while Dart was exceptional this season sans two games. I’m also fascinated by this strength-on-strength matchup of this Ole Miss run game vs. the Penn State run defense which was the best in the country, giving up just 69 yards per game. That’s also a matchup to watch on the other side of the ball, as Penn State has the best rushing attack in the Big Ten while Ole Miss has the ninth-best rush defense in the SEC. I expect Pete Golding to load the box and make Allar beat them, and I don’t think he can. With the arsenal of weapons at Jaxson Dart’s disposal, I expect Lane Kiffin to score enough points to get it done, and I don’t think Penn State’s offense will produce enough to win. Rebs by a TD.
#11 Ole Miss 27
#10 Penn State 20
The Hammer: I am super excited for this game and you should be too. A matchup of a 10-2 SEC team and a 10-2 Big Ten team with minimal opt-outs. Both starting QBs are playing, along with most skill guys. Penn State beat everyone except Michigan and Ohio State, while the Rebel’s only losses came to Alabama and Georgia. Point being, both these teams are darn good. Sure, maybe not elite, depending on your definition of elite, but both are very good football teams. They are well coached and should be motivated for this game with hopes of big things coming in 2024. Call me an SEC homer here, but I like Ole Miss. And traditionally, Lane Kiffin has sucked in bowl games. He’s 2-4 overall as a coach and 1-2 at Ole Miss in bowl games. But I think the Rebels are ready and Penn State’s offense is not explosive enough to capitalize on the Rebel’s weaknesses. Ole Miss doesn't have an elite defense but they are solid and should be able to keep Penn State in check. On the other side, Ole Miss has a great offense and Penn State has a great defense. If Ole Miss can get things moving on the ground with Judkins and Dart, they will win this game and I think that’s exactly what happens. Penn State’s run defense has been excellent, but the up-tempo style Ole Miss runs could give them trouble. I’ll take the Rebs to cover and win outright.
#11 Ole Miss 28
#10 Penn State 24
Bossman Slim: Even though it’s a mediocre bowl game, this puppy is in Nashville so you can bet if I was a Maryland or Auburn fan I would be there for this game. Burn down Broadway with some karaoke, wake up, have some hair of the dog then head to the stadium? Count me in, that’s a great way to ring in the New Year. I expect this one to be a bit of a snoozer on the turf. Auburn’s offense has been anemic all season (the calvary is coming next year!), and while Maryland’s offense has been solid, they’ll be playing without their star QB in Taulia Tagovailoa. They’ll also be without starting TE Corey Dyches (49/491/2 TDs) who hit the transfer portal. Auburn’s issue was not defense this season, as they finished 4th in total defense in the SEC and gave up just 201 yards per game through the air. I expect Auburn’s defense to be able to hunker down and keep this depleted Maryland offense in check. Gimme the Tigers to get it done in Nashville.
Auburn 21
Maryland 17
The Hammer: I expect some craziness in this game because why not? Maryland without Taulia Tagovailoa and Auburn has been crazy all year long. So sign me up. Hugh Freeze has surprisingly pledged his loyalty to Payton Thorne so he will be at the helm for Auburn in this one, and likely next season. That gives me no confidence if I am an Auburn fan, but he should be able to play at least equal to whoever Maryland’s backup QB is. Ultimately, I think Auburn’s run game and defense will win this one. Jarquez Hunter and Damari Alston should be able to find enough room to get a win here, albeit a sloppy one.
Auburn 28
Maryland 20
Bossman Slim: This isn’t where either team wanted to be, as evidenced by the pre-Orange Bowl press conference where Kirby Smart and Mike Norvell looked like they were in a hostage video. FSU is now in a struggle to leave the ACC and has been depleted by opt-outs and transfers, while Georgia has also dealt with a spate of transfers that has impacted the Bulldogs depth. UGA will have many of their star players on the field while FSU will be without star WRs Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson, as well as RB Trey Benson and TE Jaheim Bell who all opted out, not to mention freak DE Jared Verse. I wish this one was in the old days because a Georgia-FSU bowl matchup at full strength would be a fun mix-up game, as these teams have only played eleven times, with the last game coming in the Sugar Bowl in 2003 when David Pollack was the SEC Player of the Year. With all the firepower FSU lost and a third-string QB facing this Georgia defense, I’ll take the Dawgs.
#6 Georgia 30
#5 Florida State 13
The Hammer: I still love bowl season, but it is a shame we won’t get to see these teams play even close to full strength. FSU has seen tons of opt-outs as expected after the CFP snub. Meanwhile, UGA has had 19 players enter the transfer portal. Mostly depth guys, but some like Jamon Dumas-Johnson who contributed this year. That said, the FSU team has suffered far more high-profile opt-outs so I expect Georgia to roll, especially with Carson Beck on the field. There is a reason the spread here is two touchdowns. It won’t be close.
#6 Georgia 34
#5 Florida State 14
Bossman Slim: LSU had a chance to make a deep run this year with Jayden Daniels coming back and that stable of NFL-caliber wideouts. Instead, the Tigers put up gaudy offensive numbers but couldn’t hang on defense, eventually dropping three games that cost them a second shot at an SEC title in as many years. With Daniels opting out, it’s now officially the Garrett Nussmeier era in Baton Rouge. The Tigers did get a huge boost when star receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. decided to play in the bowl game. LSU’s secondary has been the weak spot all season, and now they’ll be without safety Sage Ryan and a couple of depth pieces. That doesn’t scare me though, because this Wisconsin aerial attack was middling in the Big Ten. I think Nussmeier’s got it, and with both Nabers and Thomas Jr. playing, I’ll take LSU.
#13 LSU 34
Wisconsin 24
The Hammer: No clue what to expect in this game, but I’ll take LSU. Garrett Nussmeier will take over for Heisman winner Jayden Daniels, and I’m excited to see what he can do with a few weeks to prepare as the starter. He was a high-profile recruit who has stuck around and waited for his turn, which is rare these days. He’s had some great and some not-so-great appearances in relief of Jayden Daniels over the last few years. One thing I am most interested in seeing is how the offense operates without an elite runner at QB. Nussmeier isn't a statue back there, but he’s also not Jayden Daniels. The LSU running game has struggled for years to get rolling without QB runs. Logan Diggs led LSU running backs with 652 yards rushing this year, which is pretty low for a leading back. That’s because Daniels ate up so many of their yards on the ground, but he’s gone. I think the Tiger offense will look way different but they should still be able to handle Wisconsin. The Badgers have been painfully average this year and despite my expectation that they will play hard, I don’t see them winning this game.
#13 LSU 31
Wisconsin 24
Bossman Slim: This one got a little more interesting with Joe Milton opting out. Now, it’s five-star phenom Nico Iamaleava’s team. The Vols will also be without top rushers Jabari Small and Jaylin Wright, along with some key pieces on defense such as Tyler Baron who transferred to Ole Miss. Iowa will largely be at full strength, and that defense is mean. However, the offense looks like a baby deer that’s learning how to walk. Even with this depleted Vols squad, I think Tennessee can get the job done. All they need to do is score around 10 points and they should be good. With Nico in at QB, I think he gets it done and starts off the era with a bang.
#21 Tennessee 24
#17 Iowa 13
The Hammer: It's Nico time. Joe Milton opted out so Tennessee's favorite QB recruit Nico Iamaleava will get his first start. Iamaleava was the #2 overall recruit in the 2023 recruiting class and big things are expected of him, so it’s going to be fascinating to see how he plays against a really, really good defense in Iowa. As good as Iowa’s defense is, their offense is the complete opposite. They can barely complete a forward pass. I can absolutely see a world where Nico struggles a little and Iowa hangs around thanks to their defense and special teams. But they really aren’t a threat to win. Not with that offense. I’ll take Tennessee to win and ultimately cover.
#21 Tennessee 24
#17 Iowa 10
Bossman Slim: Can Michigan slow down Jalen Milroe enough to keep pace? That’s the question. It’s obvious what the strategy is here for the Tide - shut down the run as much as possible and make JJ McCarthy beat you through the air. How much you can slow down that Michigan attack is the question. They’ve been able to run the ball on just about everyone they’ve played this season, averaging 161 yards per game. Bama’s rush defense is no slouch, though, so it will be strength-on-strength when Michigan has the ball. The Wolverines will have to hit a few mid-level passing plays to keep rushing lanes open, and that’s the big question when Bama is on defense. I think Jalen Milroe presents too many problems for this Michigan defense that has hardly faced a mobile quarterback all season. It will be close, but I think Bama will win the turnover battle and squeak by Michigan late in a low-scoring affair.
#4 Alabama 24
#1 Michigan 20
The Hammer: This game is going to be awesome. Michigan against Alabama in the college football playoff. Two of the biggest brands and storied programs in the sport’s history face off with everything on the line. Alabama was counted out this year after an early loss to Texas and a few uncharacteristically close games (ahem, South Florida). But Saban and the Tide rallied and ran the table for the remainder of the year. They squeaked into the CFP over an undefeated FSU and now get their chance to take down an undefeated Michigan, the pride of the Big Ten. For as dominant as Michigan has been, the controversy surrounding them and their sign stealing was one of the biggest storylines of the entire season. This game likely won’t change anyone’s mind about Michigan and how much their cheating helped them over the years, but it would at least vindicate the Wolverine fanbase who has been desperate for a big win on this stage for years. Harbaugh and Michigan are 0-2 in the CFP, and I think they are about to be 0-3. Ain’t no way I am betting against Nick Saban in the CFP. Alabama might not be dominant in the same way past Alabama teams have been, but they went 12-1 and won the SEC. Their defense is dominant and their offense is explosive. Michigan hasn’t seen a defense of this caliber yet, and I don’t trust McCarthy to get it done. He struggled against both Penn State and Ohio State and Bama is better on defense than both. The Tide will not allow Michigan to run the ball to a win. That’s not to say Michigan will have no success on the ground, they very well could. But there will come a time in this game when McCarthy needs to make big-time throws downfield and I don’t think he can do that against this secondary.
#4 Alabama 23
#1 Michigan 20
